EP467: Connecting Sky-High ER Spend to Primary Care Access—Following the Dollar Through Carriers and Hospitals, With Stacey Richter

Here’s my new idea for an episode. Welcome to it. I want to talk about a major theme running through the last few episodes of Relentless Health Value. And this theme is, heads up, going to continue through a few upcoming shows as well.

For a full transcript of this episode, click here.

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We have Matt McQuide coming up, talking about patient engagement, and Christine Hale, MD, MBA, talking about high-cost claimants. And we also have an encore coming up with Kenny Cole, MD, talking about a lot of things; but patient trust is one of them. But before I get to the main theme to ponder here, let me talk about what gets selected to talk about on Relentless Health Value.

I will freely admit, how topics for shows get picked, it’s not exactly a linear sort of affair. And furthermore, even if it were, I can’t always get the stars to align to get a specific cluster of guests to all come on like one after the other. So, for sure, it might be less than obvious at times where my head is at—and sometimes, admittedly, I don’t even know.

This may sound incredibly scattershot (and it probably is), but in my defense, this whole healthcare thing, in case you didn’t know, it’s really complicated. Every time I get a chance to chat with an expert, I learn something new. I feel like it’s almost impossible to sit in a vacuum and mastermind some kind of grand insight.

Very, very fortunately, I don’t need to sit in a cave and do all this heavy thinking all by myself. We got ourselves a tribe here of like-minded, really smart folks between the guests and you lot, all of you in the tribe of listeners who are here every week. Yeah, you rock! And I can always count on you to start teasing out the themes and the through lines and the really key actionable points.

You email me. You write great posts and comments on LinkedIn and elsewhere. Even if I am a little bit behind the eight ball translating my instinct into an actual trend line, it doesn’t slow this bus down. It’s you who keeps it moving, which is why I can confidently say it’s you all who are to blame for this new idea I came up with the other day after the podcast with Al Lewis (EP464) triggered so much amazing and really deep insight and dot connecting back and forth that hooked together the past six, I’m gonna say, or so shows.

Let’s just start at the beginning. Let’s start with the topics that have been discussed in the past several episodes of the pod. Here I go.

Emergency room visits are now costing about 6% of total plan sponsor spend on average. That was the holy crap moment from the episode with Al Lewis (EP464).

Emergency room volume is up, and also prices are up. In that show with Al Lewis, I did quote John Lee, MD, who is an emergency room doctor, by the way. I quoted him because he told a story about a patient who came into the ER, winds up getting a big workup in his ER. Dr. Lee says he sees this situation a lot where the patient comes in, they’ve had something going on for a while, they’ve tried to make an appointment with their PCP or even urgent care, they could not get in.

It’s also really hard to coordinate and get all the blood work or the scans and have that all looked at that’s needed for the workup to even happen. I’ve spoken with multiple ER doctors at this point, and they all say pretty much the same thing. They see the same scenario happen often enough, maybe even multiple times a day.

Patient comes in with something that may or may not be emergent, and they are now in the ER because they’ve been worried about it for weeks or months. And the ER is like the only place where they can get to the bottom of what is going on with their body. And then the patient, you know, they spend the whole day in the ER getting what amounts to weeks’ worth of outpatient workup accomplished and scans and imaging and labs. And there’s no prior authing anything down. It’s also incredibly expensive.

Moving on from the Al Lewis show, earlier than that I had had on Rushika Fernandopulle, MD (EP460) and then also Scott Conard, MD (EP462). Both are PCPs, both talking about primary care and what makes good primary care and what makes bad primary care and how our current “healthcare marketplace,” as Dr. Conard puts it, incentivizes either no primary care and/or primary care where volume driven throughput is the name of the game—you know, like seeing 25 patients a day.

These visits or episodes of care are often pretty transactional. If relationships are formed, it’s because the doctor and/or the patient are rising above the system, not the other way around.

And none of that is good for primary care doctors, nurses, or other clinicians. It’s also not good for patients, and it’s not good for plan sponsors or any of the ultimate purchasers here (taxpayers, patients themselves) because while all of this is going on, those patients getting no or not good primary care are somebody’s next high-cost claimant.

Okay, so those were the shows with Rushika Fernandopulle and Scott Conard. Then this past week was the show with Vivian Ho, PhD (EP466), who discusses the incentives that hospital leadership often has. And these incentives may actually sound great on paper, but IRL, they wind up actually jacking up prices and set up some weird incentives to increase the number of beds and the heads in them.

There was also two shows, one of them with Betsy Seals (EP463) and then another one with Wendell Potter (EP384), about Medicare Advantage and what payers are up to.

Alright, so let’s dig in. What’s the big theme? What’s the big through line here? Let’s take it from the top.

Theme 1 is largely this (and Scott Conard actually said this flat out in his show): Primary care—good primary care, I mean—is an investment. Everything else is a cost. And those skyrocketing ER costs are pure evidence of this. Again, listen to that show with Al Lewis earlier (EP464) for a lot of details about this. But total plan costs … 6% are ER visits. Tim Denman from Premise Health wrote, “That is an insane number! Anything over 2% warrants concern.”

But yeah, these days we have, on average across the country, 200 plan members out of 1000 every single year dipping into their local ER. That number, by the way, will rise and fall depending on the access and availability of primary care and/or good urgent cares. Here’s from a Web site entitled ER Visit Statistics, Facts & Trends:

“In the United States, emergency room visits often highlight gaps in healthcare accessibility. Many individuals turn to ERs for conditions that could have been managed through preventative or primary care. … This indicates that inadequate access to healthcare often leads to increased reliance on emergency departments. …

“ED visits can entail significant costs, particularly when a considerable portion of these visits is classified as non-urgent. … [Non-urgent] visits—not requiring immediate medical intervention—often lead to unnecessary expenditures that could be better allocated in primary care settings.”

And by the way, if you look at the total cost across the country of ER visits, it’s billions and billions and billions of dollars. In 2017, ED visits (I don’t have a stat right in front of me), but in 2017, ED visits were $76.3 billion in the United States.

Alright, so, the Al Lewis show comes out, I see that, and then, like a bolt of lightning, François de Brantes, MBA, enters the chat. François de Brantes was on Relentless Health Value several years ago (EP220). I should have him come back on.

But François de Brantes cemented with mortar the connectivity between runaway ER costs and the lack of primary care. He started out talking actually about a new study from the Milbank Memorial Fund. Only like 5% of our spend going to primary care is way lower than any other developed country in the world—all of whom, of course, have far higher life expectancies than us. So, yeah … they might be onto something.

François de Brantes wrote (with some light editing), “Setting aside the impotence of policies, the real question we should ask ourselves is whether we’re looking at the right numbers. The short answer is no, with all due respect to the researchers that crunched the numbers. That’s probably because the lens they’re using is incredibly narrow and misses everything else.”

And he’s talking now about, is that 5% primary care number actually accurate? François de Brantes continues, “Consider, for example, that in commercially insured plans, the total spend on … EDs is 6% or more.”

And then he says, “Check out Stacey Richter’s podcast on the subject, but 6% is essentially what researchers say is spent on, you know, ‘primary care.’ Except … they don’t count those costs, the ER costs. They don’t count many other costs that are for primary care, meaning for the treatment of routine preventative and sick care, all the things that family practices used to manage but don’t anymore. They don’t count them because those services are rendered by clinicians other than those in primary care practice.”

François concludes (and he wrote a great article) that if you add up all the dollars that are spent on things that amount to primary care but just didn’t happen in a primary care office, it’s conservatively around 17% of total dollars.

So, yeah … it’s not like anyone is saving money by not making sure that every plan member or patient across the country has a relationship with an actual primary care team—you know, a doctor or a nurse who they can get on the phone with who knows them. Listen to the show coming up with Matt McQuide. This theme will continue.

But any plan not making sure that primary care happens in primary care offices is shelling out for the most expensive primary care money can buy, you know, because it’s gonna happen either in the ER or elsewhere.

Jeff Charles Goldsmith, PhD, put this really well. He wrote, “As others have said, [this surge in ER dollars is a] direct consequence of [a] worsening primary care shortage.”

Then Dr. John Lee turned up. He, I had quoted on the Al Lewis show, but he wrote a great post on LinkedIn; and part of it was this: “Toward a systemic solution, [we gotta do some unsqueezing of the balloon]. Stacey and Al likened our system to a squeezed balloon, with pressure forcing patients into the [emergency room]. The true solution is to ‘unsqueeze’ the system by improving access to care outside the [emergency room]. Addressing these upstream issues could prevent patients from ending up in the [emergency room]. … While the necessary changes are staring us in the face, unsqueezing the balloon is far more challenging than it sounds.”

And speaking of ER docs weighing in, then we had Mick Connors, MD, who left a banger of a comment with a bunch of suggestions to untangle some of these challenges that are more challenging than they may sound at first glance that Dr. Lee mentions. And as I said, he’s a 30-year pediatric emergency physician, so I’m inclined to take his suggestions seriously. You can find them on LinkedIn. But yeah, I can see why some communities are paying 40 bucks a month or something for patients without access to primary care to get it just like they pay fire departments or police departments.

Here’s a link to Primary Care for All Americans, who are trying to help local communities get their citizens primary care. And Dr. Conard talked about this a little bit in that episode (EP462). I can also see why plan sponsors have every incentive to change the incentives such that primary care teams can be all in on doing what they do.

Dr. Fernandopulle (EP460) hits on this. This is truly vital, making sure that the incentives are right, because we can’t forget, as Rob Andrews has said repeatedly, organizations do what you pay them to do. And unless a plan sponsor gets into the mix, it is super rare to encounter anybody paying anybody for amazing primary care in an actual primary care setting.

At that point, Alex Sommers, MD, ABEM, DipABLM, arrived on the scene; and he wrote (again with light editing—sorry, I can’t read), “This one is in my wheelhouse. There is a ton that could be done here. There just has to be strategy in any given market. It’s a function of access, resources, and like-minded employers willing to invest in a direct relationship with providers. But not just any providers. Providers who are willing to solve a big X in this case. You certainly don’t need a trauma team on standby to remove a splinter or take off a wart. A great advanced primary care relationship is one way, but another thing is just access to care off-hours with the resources to make a difference in a cost-plus model. You can’t help everybody at once. But you can help a lot of people if there is a collaborative opportunity.”

And then Dr. Alex Sommers continues. He says, “We already have EKG, most procedures and supplies, X-ray, ultrasounds, and MRI in our clinics. All that’s missing is a CT scanner. It just takes a feasible critical mass to invest in a given geography for that type of alternative care model to alter the course here. Six percent of plan spend going to the ER. My goodness.”

So, then we have Ann Lewandowski, who just gets to the heart of the matter and the rate critical for primary care to become the investment that it could be: trust. Ann Lewandowski says, “I 100% agree with all of this, basically. I think strong primary care that promotes trust before things get so bad people think they need to go to the emergency room is the way to go.”

This whole human concept of trust is a gigantic requirement for clinical and probably financial success. We need primary care to be an investment, but for it to be an investment, there’s got to be relationships and there has to be trust between patients and their care teams. Now, neither relationships nor trust are super measurable constructs, so it’s really easy for some finance pro to do things in the name of efficiency or optimization that undermine the entire spirit of the endeavor without even realizing it.

Then we have a lot of primary care that doesn’t happen in primary care offices. It happens in care settings like the ER.

So, let’s tug this theme along to the shows that concern carriers, meaning the shows with Wendell Potter (EP384) on how shareholders influence carrier behavior and with Betsy Seals (EP463) on Medicare Advantage plans and what they’re up to.

Here’s where the primary care/ER through line starts to connect to carriers. Here’s a LinkedIn post by the indomitable Steve Schutzer, MD. Dr. Schutzer wrote about the Betsy Seals conversation, and he said, “Stacey, you made a comment during this fabulous episode with Betsy that I really believe should be amplified from North to South, coast to coast—something that unfortunately is not top of mind for many in this industry. And that was ‘focus on the value that accrues to the patient’—period, end of story. That is the north star of the [value-based care] movement, lest we forget. Financial outcome measures are important in the value equation, but the numerator must be about the patient. As always, grateful for your insights and ongoing leadership.”

Oh, thank you so much. And same to you. Grateful for yours.

Betsy Seals in that podcast, though, she reminded carrier listeners about this “think about the value accruing to the patient” in that episode. And in the Wendell Potter encore that came out right before the show with Betsy, yeah, what Wendell said kind of made me realize why Betsy felt it important to remind carriers to think about the value accruing to patients.

Wall Street rewards profit maximization in the short term. It does not reward value accruing to the patient. However—and here’s me agreeing with Dr. Steve Schutzer, because I think this is what underlies his comment—if what we’re doing gets so far removed from what is of value to the patient, then yeah, we’re getting so removed from the human beings we’re allegedly serving, that smart people can make smart decisions in theoretical model world.

But what’s being done lacks a fundamental grounding in actual reality. And that’s dangerous for plan members, but it’s also pretty treacherous from a business and legal perspective, as I think we’re seeing here.

Okay, so back to our theme of broken primary care and accelerating ER costs. Are carriers getting in there and putting a stop to it? I mean, as aforementioned about 8 to 10 times, if you have a broken primary care system, you’re gonna pay for primary care, alright. It’s just gonna be in really expensive care settings.

You gotta figure carriers are wise to this and they’re the ones that are supposed to be keeping healthcare costs under control for all America. Well, relative to keeping ER costs under control, here’s a link to a study Vivian Ho, PhD, sent from Health Affairs showing how much ER prices have gone up. ER prices are way higher than they used to be.

So, you’d think that carriers would have a huge incentive to get members primary care and do lots and lots of things to ensure that not only would members have access to primary care, but it’d be amazing primary care with doctors and nurses that were trusted and relationships that would be built. It’d be salad days for value.

Except … they’re not doing a whole lot at any scale that I could find. We have Iora and ChenMed and a few others aside. These are advanced primary care groups that are deployed by carriers, and these organizations can do great things. But I also think they serve—and this came up in the Dr. Fernandopulle show (EP460)—they serve like 1% of overall patient populations. Dr. Fernandopulle talked about this in the context of why these advanced primary care disruptors may have great impact on individual patients but they have very little overall impact at a national scale. They’re just not scaled, and they’re not nationwide.

But why not? I mean, why aren’t carriers all over this stuff?

Well, first of all—and again, kind of like back to the Wendell show (EP384) now—if we’re thinking short term, as a carrier, like Wall Street encourages, you know, quarter by quarter, and if only the outlier, mission-driven folks (the knights) in any given carrier organization are checking what’s going on actually with plans, members, and patients like Betsy advised, keep in mind it’s a whole lot cheaper and it’s easier to just deny care. And you can do that at scale if you get yourself an AI engine and press Go. Or you can come up with, I don’t know, exciting new ways to maximize your risk adjustment and upcoding. There’s an article that was written by Sergei Polevikov, ABD, MBA, MS, MA 🇮🇱🇺🇦 called “The 80% Error Rate Diagnostic Device at the Heart of UnitedHealth’s Upcoding Fraud.”

Right? So, you definitely have some carriers who are trying to take a shortcut, which might not wind up being much of a shortcut. Now, that’s not to say that everybody has the same strategy.

I read in Kevin O’Leary’s Health Tech Nerds newsletter the other day. Kevin wrote, “On Wednesday, Humana announced it will expand its primary care footprint in eleven states and four new markets. Between CenterWell, Conviva, and its Walmart partnership, Humana will add 20 to 30 de novo and acquired clinics in 2025. Eleven Walmart locations are scheduled to open up this year.”

Vivek Garg, MD, MBA, by the way, from Humana was on the pod a few years ago (EP407) talking about Humana’s PCP strategy. Humana also, let’s keep in mind, has a big footprint in Medicare Advantage, where the carrier itself is at risk and is gonna foot that bill for the emergency rooms. So, from an incentive standpoint, theirs is strong.

Here’s my point: Exceptions aside, despite the fact that carriers should have a vested interest to keep patients out of the ER by ensuring that they have access to great primary care, given the challenges that Dr. John Lee alluded to, we all know how trust and relationships have eroded over the years; and Dr. Mick Connors and Dr. Alex Sommers talked about this, too.

Despite the obvious incentive, the carriers (most of them) look at spreadsheets and decide to take a more expedient path to greater profitability, which is great until I guess they get sued or investigated by the DOJ.

Lastly, lastly, because the show is getting a little long in the tooth, let me bring up the pod with Vivian Ho, PhD (EP466). It’s the next place that this through line heads.

The show with Vivian Ho digs in on a whole bunch of things, but the part that’s relevant to this primary care theme is how hospital boards of directors are usually rich folks, mostly with finance backgrounds. And that whole thing came up on the show with Suhas Gondi, MD, MBA (EP404), specifically about hospital boards of directors and who is on them.

But these boards of directors have a bit of a personal goal here, and that personal goal, at least one of them, is to not have to travel to get the fancy scans or treatments. They do not want to have to go to New York City or Cleveland or Minnesota.

So, yeah … budgets are set and incentives are set for hospital leadership, and money that is available is diverted from primary care, which is boring and so very basic, to this fancy stuff. It’s a zero-sum game, and if boards of directors are creating incentives and strategic imperatives and annual goals to stand up, you know, fancy schmancy suites of really specific machinery or something for really specific diseases, then primary care is like, “Hey, guys! What about me?”

There’s lots of other things going on at hospitals, too, like how ERs have become big profit centers. This comes up slightly actually in the show with Matt McQuide (which is coming up), and it is a reality that plan sponsors need to be aware of.

Okay, so there you go. That is the through line. Primary care is an investment if it’s good primary care. Everything else is a cost. And the thing about this whole thing is that if you don’t fund primary care in a primary setting, it’s not like people don’t need primary care. They will go get it, and they will go get it in the most expensive place that they possibly can get it, which is the emergency room.

And we’ve got carriers who are doing a lot of other things but not stemming the root cause of this ER trend. And then we also have hospitals who actually have a vested interest for this trend to continue again at the C-suite hospital leadership level. I am certainly not talking about probably most people that work at a hospital now.

I am super interested in what you think about this idea that I had to do this through line show.

Also mentioned in this episode are Matt McQuide; Christine Hale, MD, MBA; Kenny Cole, MD; Al Lewis; John Lee, MD; Rushika Fernandopulle, MD; Scott Conard, MD; Vivian Ho, PhD; Betsy Seals; Wendell Potter; Tim Denman; François de Brantes, MBA; Jeff Charles Goldsmith, PhD; Mick Connors, MD; Primary Care for All Americans; Rob Andrews; Alex Sommers, MD, ABEM, DipABLM; Ann Lewandowski; Steve Schutzer, MD; Sergei Polevikov, ABD, MBA, MS, MA 🇮🇱🇺🇦; Kevin O’Leary; Health Tech Nerds; Vivek Garg, MD, MBA; Suhas Gondi, MD, MBA; and Tom Nash.

For more information, go to aventriahealth.com. 

Each week on Relentless Health Value, Stacey uses her voice and thought leadership to provide insights for healthcare industry decision makers trying to do the right thing. Each show features expert guests who break down the twists and tricks in the medical field to help improve outcomes and lower costs across the care continuum. Relentless Health Value is a top 100 podcast on iTunes in the medicine category and reaches tens of thousands of engaged listeners across the healthcare industry.

In addition to hosting Relentless Health Value, Stacey is co-president of QC-Health, a benefit corporation finding cost-effective ways to improve the health of Americans. She is also co-president of Aventria Health Group, a consultancy working with clients who endeavor to form collaborations with payers, providers, Pharma, employer organizations, or patient advocacy groups.

02:16 Connecting the dots between the last six shows.

05:34 EP466 with Vivian Ho, PhD.

05:53 EP463 with Betsy Seals.

05:56 EP384 with Wendell Potter.

14:38 Where does the primary care through line connect to carriers?

17:13 Health Affairs study showing ER cost increases.

19:19 Kevin O’Leary’s Health Tech Nerds newsletter.

19:40 EP407 with Vivek Garg, MD, MBA.

20:47 How are hospital board directors affecting hospital price increases and why?

21:49 Upcoming episode with Matt McQuide.

Recent past interviews:

Click a guest’s name for their latest RHV episode!

Vivian Ho, Chris Crawford (EP465), Al Lewis, Betsy Seals, Wendell Potter (Encore! EP384), Dr Scott Conard, Stacey Richter (INBW42), Chris Crawford (EP461), Dr Rushika Fernandopulle, Bill Sarraille